2016: the year of the moderate republicans
|This blog entry is related to the poll:||Which Republicans could have a chance of defeating the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016?|
|It is discussing the poll topics:|| |
As we mentioned many times this year, the traditionally blue states--the ones Democrats have won five times in a row--are worth 242 EVs. Obama won every one of them. None were even close. Not even Wisconsin, where Obama had a 7-point margin even with a Wisconsite on the opposing ticket. Romney made a last-ditch effort to win Pennsylvania, but came up short. The blue team won by 5 points. So next time around, we can talk about the 242 EVs that the Democrats have won six times in a row. Rick Santorum or Marco Rubio aren't going to make a dent here, probably not Paul Ryan, either. Chris Christie might.
But something new has been added to the mix. New Mexico is now dark blue, so make that 247. Obama also won Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire by margins of 6, 5, and 5 points, respectively. If they get added to the Democratic base, it becomes 263. If the Democrats have a floor of 263 EVs in 2016, the Republicans have to win all of Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. All of them. Moving farther to the right, as seems entirely possible, is probably not the ticket to win these big, diverse swing states.
As the above strongly implies, the only chance the Republicans have a chance at winning the presidency in 2016 is to field a moderate candidate, like Jon Hunstman. That probably would be a very good thing for the US. This year's campaign has been appalling. Let's hope we won't have a repeat in 2016.