2016: the year of the moderate republicans

This blog entry is related to the poll:Which Republicans could have a chance of defeating the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016?
It is discussing the poll topics:
  • Jon Huntsman (1 post)


As we mentioned many times this year, the traditionally blue states--the ones Democrats have won five times in a row--are worth 242 EVs. Obama won every one of them. None were even close. Not even Wisconsin, where Obama had a 7-point margin even with a Wisconsite on the opposing ticket. Romney made a last-ditch effort to win Pennsylvania, but came up short. The blue team won by 5 points. So next time around, we can talk about the 242 EVs that the Democrats have won six times in a row. Rick Santorum or Marco Rubio aren't going to make a dent here, probably not Paul Ryan, either. Chris Christie might.

But something new has been added to the mix. New Mexico is now dark blue, so make that 247. Obama also won Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire by margins of 6, 5, and 5 points, respectively. If they get added to the Democratic base, it becomes 263. If the Democrats have a floor of 263 EVs in 2016, the Republicans have to win all of Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. All of them. Moving farther to the right, as seems entirely possible, is probably not the ticket to win these big, diverse swing states.

As the above strongly implies, the only chance the Republicans have a chance at winning the presidency in 2016 is to field a moderate candidate, like Jon Hunstman. That probably would be a very good thing for the US. This year's campaign has been appalling. Let's hope we won't have a repeat in 2016.


Re: Moderate Republicans

The real dilemma in the Republican Party right now is who will best represent the Republican Party. I think in all honesty, unless the GOP nominates someone like Jon Huntsman, they will self-destruct and it won't be pretty. As a matter of fact, I think the GOP right now is pretty much committing political suicide over the fiscal cliff, debt, Hurricane Sandy, disability rights laws, U.S. Postal Service, women's rights, economy and a host of other issues.

It's funny because I once registered as a Republican because I did like Presidents like Theodore Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower. Then when I realized the Democratic Party's presidents were my favorite presidents, such as Harry Truman, I became a Democrat. However, I do believe that being fiscally conservative is pretty much common sense. Why wouldn't anyone be fiscally conservative? Republicans in Congress like Darrell Issa are having it both ways by voting for the Iraq War funding yet doing most of the fighting during President Obama's presidency. It's all about politics and it really makes me sick to my stomach.

That's why the focus now should be solely on wiping as many in the GOP out of the House in 2014 as humanly possible. I can't stress how important this is.

And of course, doing so has to be done right and with good planning and knowledge.

Jon Huntsman

Jon Huntsman is doing well in this site's 2012 presidential polls (see links on the left).
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I agree with everything you write. The Republican party is currently completely corrupt at its core. It's not healthy at all for the US, whatever side you are on. I hope that together, we can restore some sanity in the political debate.

Regarding 2016, I am trying to set up a poll about the potential D and R candidates and nominees, but I am not sure how to phrase the questions. See: